Saturday, Dec. 3110 a.m. ETUSA Network
Wolves Odds+160Everton Odds+175Draw+230Over / Under2.5 +105 / -134Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
Wolves look to slow down red hot Everton Saturday at the Molineux.
They have now won back to back matches against Chelsea and Brentford, scoring a whopping six goals in the process. Gary O'Neill has done a masterful job turning Wolves into a good side that can compete with some of the top tier teams in the Premier League. It's situations like this where they are the favorites where they've struggled.
Everton have now lost back to back matches to Tottenham and Manchester City, but things are still heading in the right direction for Sean Dyche. Because of their 10-point deduction Everton are still in the relegation fight, but they will not be there long given the form they have been in lately.
Let's get into my Wolves vs Everton prediction.
WolvesWolves were basically gifted two of their three goals against Brentford with uncharacteristic mistakes by the Bees. That’s not really going to happen against Everton because they are not going to try and build out of the back and let Wolves press them.
Hee Chan Hwang went off with back injury against Brentford and is questionable to play in this match. If he’s not available and Neto is also not in the lineup, then Wolves' attack is going to severely limited.
Wolves have been giant killers, beating Tottenham, Manchester City and Chelsea at home, but they actually haven’t been that great against teams in the bottom half of the table. In their nine matches against teams in the bottom half, they have a -3.5 expected goal differential.
Gary O'Neill has been a breath of fresh air for Wolves tactically, because he doesn't really have a set tactical plan. He usually has them set up in a mid block, looking to press high at times, but O'Neill is a big believer in adapting to what the opponent does. One example is Chelsea tried to fool him by coming out in a different build up structure, but he quickly changed the plan to counter what they were doing by switching to a back five so Chelsea couldn't overload them.
While it has been impressive what O'Neill has done tactically, Wolves are still a bottom half of the table Premier League side sitting with a -5.3 expected goal differential.
EvertonEverton have been a really good side this season. The reason that Everton have improved so much this season has been their performance out of possession. Everton can play two different styles and have been successful at both. They can come out and press their opponents' build up and cause a lot of problems. Everton have forced the third-most high turnovers and have the third-most shots off of those forced high turnovers.
Or they can play another style of being passive out of possession, focusing on their defensive shape and preventing teams from creating high quality chances. They've been one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League, allowing the fourth-fewest non-penalty expected goals and conceding the fewest big scoring chances.
Everton love to play very direct, very rarely building out of the back. They like to get the ball into wide areas and create chances via crosses. Everton have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area and it's in large part to the two physical strikers they have in Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Beto. The Toffees are also winning 53% of their aerial duals, which is sixth-best in the Premier League. Everton are devastating when they do get forward in transition as they have the highest direct speed in the Premier League and are top five in big scoring chances created.
Image via the Analyst
Everton also profile really well as a favorite because of their ability to press their opponents build up effectively. In their nine matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, Everton has a +7.3 xGD.
Prediction
This is really a good matchup for Everton. The Toffees' high press caused Wolves a lot of problems in the previous meeting. Alternatively, they can sit in their low defensive block and dare Wolves to break them down, which I am not sure they are capable of doing. Even if Wolves decide to sit deep and let Everton have the ball, Wolves have been well below average at defending crosses, which is bad news if you are facing Everton.
Wolves have pulled off quite a few big upsets this season, but against teams around them in the table they have struggled. They are also due for some negative regression with their expected goal differential being -8 when their goal differential is -4.
Everton are legitimately the ninth-best team in the Premier League right now and I am not sure the market has caught up to where they should be priced.
I have Everton projected as a +113 road favorite, so I like the value on the Toffees.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (-101 via bet365)Check out our latest bet365 promo code to get the most out of your Premier League bets.